When the world’s loosest-lipped man is silent about his near-assassination
You get social media reviving conspiracy theories that Butler was staged
You’re here because you’re watching politics get body-slammed by digital culture and content creators. I’m here because I’m the only one who can guide you through it.
I have 6,466 screenshots on my phone — each one anxiously awaiting the day it’ll come in handy.
They’re mostly an exercise in futility, like the one I took of the Sephora homepage this weekend so I wouldn’t forget to put in an order during the sale. It — like the thousands of others hoping to be noticed every time I open my camera roll — failed to inspire action. My wallet is grateful for its service.
Every now and then, I capture something that my gut tells me will be relevant in the future. I’m in the Bene Gesserit of social media — my screenshots are measured in centuries. So, you can imagine what a rush I felt today pulling up IMG_3844 snapped at 6:47pm on July 13, 2024.
Users posted 22,900 tweets with the word “staged” in the 36 minutes following the assassination attempt on Trump in Butler, PA. That’s ~636 tweets per minute. Internet conspiracies can have a lengthy gestation period — the instantaneous combustion here pointed to sparks flying from an unlikely source.
The online left’s skepticism, questioning, or even outright rejection of what happened that day gave influencers on the right an opportunity. Their “BlueAnon” branding exercise respawned with vigor, allowing MAGA loyalists to point the finger at liberals crying “hoax.” They said, see, you’re just like us … you have conspiracies, too.
And this roles-reversed tango caught fire, fast, in the political content world. Right-wing YouTuber, James Klug, delivered a series of man on the street interviews the day after. The full video netted just under 1M views, but it was the clips posted to Twitter that left a mark. Within 36 hours, he got five beachgoers on the record in one clip saying it was staged.
I think people forget how popular that opinion actually was. Morning Consult released polling 48 hours post-Butler showing one in five voters, including 33% of Biden supporters, considered it “credible” that the shooting was staged. Conservative torchbearers were incredulous — especially when that clip I mentioned started getting millions of views.
It got all the way to then-gatekeeper of MAGA purity herself, Marjorie Taylor Greene:
If we’re applying her standard stated above to her current “maybe it was a hoax” pivot, I believe that would make her an unhinged BlueAnon conspiracy theorist. I thought the gestation period for these conspiracies was over a year ago. Boy, was I wrong.
How these theories gained strength on social and what Trump “truth” we missed along the way … all below!
You’re looking at the last 12 months of tracked social posts that contain the words “Trump,” “assassination,” and “staged” across platforms, via Junkipedia. You can see the spikes at the anniversary of Butler in July, the assassination of Charlie Kirk in Sept, and the crazy surge this month.
FRESH-SQUEEZED SOCIAL JUICE
Marjorie Taylor Greene seems to be found at the scene of all the viral content these days, to the point that she’s posting her position shifts herself to avoid being scooped. While she’s usually banging her own drum, at her own tempo, to her own rhythm, her posts this weekend were harmonizing with someone else.
Trisha Hope, former Texas delegate for Trump, has chronicled her slow withdrawal from MAGA for months. Her very long post on April 12 (that MTG leapfrogged off of) has 3M views. An excerpt:
“Following the inauguration, I found it odd that Trump wasn’t going aggressively after those who allowed this to happen. He seemed to behave like it was no big deal …
If you cannot look at this story, and use critical thinking skills and have at least some questions, you are the problem and we need you to snap out of it.”
But this spike didn’t start there. Tim Dillon — a right-wing (ish) comedian who is not to be taken seriously — did a Butler segment on his April 11 pod. Donning the literal most heinous $870 Louis Vuitton purple sunglasses you’ve ever seen, Dillon pitches his view:
“I don’t care if he staged the assassination attempt in Butler. I think he should admit it, change the subject, stop talking about Iran.
I will not think less of you [...] I will be impressed by the level of coordination.”
A couple beats later, he goes, “Does that make me crazy?” and I basically screamed YES back. This episode has 950k views on YouTube and millions more across platforms through clips.
Here’s the thing: I don’t even think it started there either. We’d be remiss not to look at the other person always at the scene of the content these days. Tucker Carlson is always gonna be in it, but this time … it’s not what you think.
This early-internet ass graphic went mega viral on Facebook on April 9. And you’re like … I mean how could anyone fall for that? It’s basically a cave painting. Well, it has 47,000 likes and 10,000 comments that are all some rendition of, “Thanks Captain Obvious!!!!” But she has a twin — a similar post with another 15,000 likes went live on Threads the same day.
Small problem: Tucker Carlson never said anything of the sort. People may have found it plausible for any of these reasons:
Carlson had the former Counterterrorism Director Kent on his podcast
Kent has been open about concerns regarding the Butler investigation
Carlson has accused the FBI of lying about the shooter
People believe anything they read on Facebook
What Carlson did say in an April 4 episode of his pod?
“Not only has there been zero interest from the people in charge of ginning up interest — the influencers. There’s been calculated discouragement and attacks on anyone who persists in asking the question … I’m getting a little sick of it.”
QUESTION EVERYTHING OR NOTHING
“Just asking questions” is a biological feature on top of which MAGA and 2020s conservatism were built. It has been a frequently rewarded reflex for the apex creators in their content ecosystem. And we’re starting to see a tension between the image control Trump demands and the (now-repressed) skepticism bred into them through the COVID years.
You can see Benny Johnson struggle with this live on his April 20 show. He opens by answering the question of whether Trump faked his assasination attempt: “The answer to that question is no.” Then, he spends 10 minutes questioning why we have no information about the “shooter” — his quotes, not mine — before ending with: “I don’t buy it. I think there’s far more to see here.” I don’t think that kind of urge can be resisted much longer.
TRUMP TELLING THE TRUTH?
I believe we can actually get good data on the temperature of Americans through the comment sections. Specifically on YouTube. The Bulwark’s recent video on this tipped me off. The hosts made it clear they are not buying into any alternative theories and their viewers don’t agree. Over and over, across platforms I saw some version of this:
Tricia Hope flagged this in her post and I rediscovered it during my own collection process: He told us he didn’t want to talk about it. No, seriously. At the RNC, just days after the shooting. I was there. Everyone had period pads stuck to their ears. I thought I was on drugs:
“So many people have asked me what happened, and therefore, I’ll tell you what happened, and you’ll never hear it from me a second time, because it’s too painful to tell.”
From a trauma standpoint, this makes sense. From a Trump standpoint, it still makes sense — he’s openly terrified of violence and dying (so much so that it’s the only thing I could see compelling him to resist his usual urge of exploiting every opportunity for his benefit, no matter how gruesome). From a content standpoint, I had some questions of my own. Did the content align with the vow of silence?
He posted on Truth Social 13,008 times between July 13, 2024-April 20, 2026.
Word: “Butler” — 44 posts total, most recently August 2025, promoted the same book with the same caption five separate times
Word: “Assassination” — 50 posts + reposts total
Four were about Charlie Kirk, two were about Iran
Two were about Ryan Routh, his other attempted assassin
Zero mention Thomas Matthew Crooks, 190 mention “Crooked” Biden, Kamala, etc
Two mention the formation of an investigation task force, zero updates have been shared on their site since Dec. 2024
In the seven Truths he posted between the shooting and the announcement of JD Vance as VP, five were about unity after the shooting. The sixth demanded his indictments be dismissed as a result of the assassination attempt.1 Otherwise? Radio silence. Do with that information what you will.
LOOSE ENDS
📺 Something you should watch today: Pablo Torre with yet another ball-buster, but this time it’s the guy whose balls everyone wants busted (?) Whatever. Don’t ask questions. Just watch it.
🕵️ Someone you should know today: I follow Sophie Vershbow on Twitter because her dog (Simon) is the dog mayor of New York, succeeding the former dog mayor who I also loved (Sally). Sophie (person) has been patiently welcoming Citrus (dog) into a fearless new life in NYC and the updates are everything. Adopt her!
🥹 Something to make you smile today: I just celebrated 10 years since I quit smoking weed which was literally ruining my life and the lives of people I love around me. Like Lady Gaga said, people can do hard things. I’m so proud of myself! Very 🥹 indeed.
the seventh was demanding rfk jr. get a secret service detail because of his family history (it worked)
I just subscribed to your Substack via suggestion from Aaron P. This is terrific. Such an interesting take. It's both relevant and fresh. Well done.
But of course..